More Homes Are Selling, But Prices Are Holding Flat
Harrisonburg and Rockingham County have now recorded 821 home sales through the end of July 2026… the strongest year-to-date pace in four years. That is the number to hang onto this month. Buyers are showing up in larger numbers than they have since 2022, and yet the median sales price has barely moved. For anyone weighing a move this fall, that combination is the whole story: activity is up, but prices are not chasing it higher.
Here is what that looks like beneath the headline, and what it means for you.
Sales are up across the board
Across all residential sales in our two markets, closings are running about 10% ahead of where they were over the same six-month stretch a year ago. The momentum did not arrive suddenly. It began building in January and has continued through every month of 2026 so far. Through seven months, we are ahead of last year’s pace the entire way, and the year is tracking right along the normal seasonal curve: busier in spring and early summer, and now settling into a steadier late-summer rhythm.
On an annualized basis, the market has moved from roughly 1,328 sales per year to about 1,429. If the current pace holds, 2026 should close out with more than 1,400 total sales. That is a meaningful step up in volume, and it reflects real, sustained buyer demand rather than a one-month blip.
But the median price is essentially flat
Now the other half of the picture. Despite all that additional activity, the median sales price across all homes has not changed over the past six months and is actually down about 1% over the past twelve. The rolling twelve-month median has eased from roughly $349,000 to $345,005… a small step down, not a slide.
This is the part worth sitting with, because it runs against the instinct many of us carry from recent years. Between 2018 and 2024, prices in our area climbed steadily and quickly. Since 2024, that climb has leveled off considerably. The slower-growth trajectory we have seen over the past two years is most likely what we should expect to continue over the next one to two years. More buyers competing does not automatically translate into higher prices when those buyers are being disciplined about what they will pay.
The story shifts a little by home type
Looking at the market in narrower slices sharpens the picture.
Detached homes had a strong July, with 34% more sales than the same month last year, contributing to a 9% increase over the past six months. Prices for detached homes have risen about 1% over both the past six and twelve months… modest, but slightly more upward movement than the market overall.
Attached homes show even stronger demand, with sales up 11% over six months and 17% over the full year. Yet their median price has slipped about 2% over the past six months. So in the attached segment, we are seeing the clearest version of this year’s pattern: strong growth in the number of sales paired with prices that are easing back a touch.
New-construction sales are up about 3%, with the median price down roughly 5%. It is important not to read that as a 5% loss in value. It more likely reflects a changing mix of what is being built and sold rather than a genuine decline in what comparable new homes are worth.
Existing homes are carrying the largest share of the volume gain, with 18% more sales in July and 13% more over the past six months. Their median price is up about 1% over the past year.
Put those pieces together and the conclusion is consistent: steady growth in the number of homes selling, with prices that are flat to very slightly up depending on the segment.
A watch item: contracts have cooled while inventory stays tight
Two data points are worth flagging because they will shape the next couple of months.
First, signed contracts pulled back noticeably in July: 98 this year versus 127 last July. Because today’s contracts become next month’s closings, that dip suggests August and September closed sales could come in a little softer than the strong numbers we have been posting. With the year tracking along its normal seasonal curve so far, some cooling at this point would not be surprising… but the size of the drop is worth watching.
Second, and somewhat surprisingly, inventory is not building. When contract activity slows, homes often start to accumulate on the market… but that is not happening here. Active inventory sits at about 186 homes, well below the 248 we had a year ago. That points to the likeliest explanation for the softer contract count: it is less about buyers stepping back and more about fewer sellers deciding to list. When there is less to choose from, there are fewer contracts to sign.
Where rates stand
Mortgage rates gave buyers a brief window of relief early this year, settling to around 6% in the first weeks of 2026. That window has since closed. Rates have climbed back to the mid-6s. Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed averaging 6.69% in the first week of August, roughly where it stood a year ago. For now, the temporary relief has faded, and there is no clear signal that it returns in the near term. Buyers should plan around today’s rates rather than waiting on a decline that may or may not arrive.
How we compare to the national market
It helps to zoom out. Nationally, existing-home sales fell 1.7% month-over-month in July and came in just 0.7% above a year ago, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Year-to-date, national sales are up 2.4%. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun calls the national market “remarkably stable, even amid the rising mortgage rate environment of the past few months.”
Set our numbers next to that and the Valley stands out. Local closings are up about 10% over the past six months across all home types, and existing-home sales specifically… the apples-to-apples comparison with NAR’s figure… are up 13% over the same stretch. Local demand is not just tracking the national market, it is outpacing it.
Prices flip the comparison. The national median existing-home price was $434,100 in July, up 2.0% from a year ago and the 37th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. Our rolling twelve-month median of $345,005 is down about 1% over the past year. So compared to the country, Harrisonburg pairs stronger sales growth with flatter prices, from a starting point well below the national median.
Inventory rounds out the picture. Nationally, unsold inventory sits at a 4.6-month supply, unchanged from both last month and one year ago. Locally, active inventory has fallen from 248 homes a year ago to about 186 today… tighter than a year ago, even as national supply holds steady.
What this means for you
If you are buying, the good news is that you are not racing against 10%-a-year price jumps anymore. The pressure to overpay simply to win a home has eased. The challenge is that prices are still high in absolute terms, and rates in the mid-6s make the monthly payment feel like a stretch for many households. The right approach is patience paired with readiness: take the time to find a home that genuinely fits your life for years to come, and then, when it appears, be prepared to act quickly and decisively. With inventory tight, the good homes still move… hesitation costs more than it used to.
Timing-wise, keep an eye on early fall. In our experience, sellers who held off during the busy summer often list once the school year settles in, so it is worth being ready for a fresh round of options after Labor Day.
If you are selling, this is a market where pricing accurately matters more than it has in years. Homes are selling in strong volume, but buyers are no longer stretching to pay more the way they were between 2020 and 2024. In this environment, pricing ambitiously and waiting for the market to catch up is a riskier play than it used to be. Price your home realistically against recent, comparable sales, present it well, and be ready to move forward with a strong, reasonable buyer when the offer comes. In our experience, well-priced homes are still moving; overpriced ones tend to sit.
For everyone, the through-line is stability. From where we sit, this is neither a boom nor a downturn… it is a market of steady demand and disciplined pricing, where good decisions, made without panic, tend to work out well.
If you are thinking about buying or selling this fall, or you simply want to understand what these trends mean for your specific situation and neighborhood, the Valley Homes Team is here to help you think it through. Reach out anytime… we are always happy to talk it over.
Sources
Local market data: Harrisonburg and Rockingham County MLS residential sales, as compiled and analyzed by Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group. National market data: National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales report for July 2026, released August 11, 2026. Mortgage rates: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week of August 6, 2026. Local data reflects sales through July 2026. This report is for informational purposes only… individual results vary by home, price range, and location.