Contracts Are Surging, Prices Are Not

Here is the number that jumped off the page this month: 146 contracts were signed in March across Harrisonburg and Rockingham County… a 33% jump from the 110 signed last March. Buyers are out in force this spring. And yet the median sales price across the market has barely moved in a year. Activity is accelerating while prices hold steady, and that combination shapes everything else in this month’s report.

Here is what is happening beneath the headline, and what it means for you.

Closings were steady, and more are on the way

March itself closed out right in line with expectations: 86 sales, just slightly ahead of the 82 from March a year ago. Through the first three months of 2026, our market is sitting at 281 home sales… a stronger start than 2023 or 2025, though a step behind 2024’s pace. Call it a normal-ish start to the year.

The more interesting signal is what comes next. All of those March contracts become spring closings, and April is already shaping up to be a busier month, with around 110 sales likely on the way. On an annual basis, the pace of home sales is up about 4% from a year ago.

Prices are flat overall… but not in every slice of the market

Across all home sales, prices have been essentially flat over the past 12 months. No meaningful increase, but no decline either. That headline number, though, hides some real differences by segment.

Detached homes tell a two-sided story: sales are actually down 6% over the past year, yet the median sales price for detached homes is up 2%. Less activity, but still some upward price pressure.

Resale homes… existing homes only, setting aside new construction… are showing the most encouraging signs. Sales are up 7% over the past year, and the median sales price has nudged up 3%. New construction in the mix is part of what makes the overall market look flatter than it is. If you are focused on existing homes, prices are most likely still trending slightly upward.

For context on how different this is from the recent past: detached home prices climbed 62% in the five years from 2019 to 2024, and then went almost completely flat. We have now seen roughly a year and a half of very little movement in either direction. That is a dramatic shift, and it is the backdrop for every pricing conversation we are having this spring.

Homes are taking a little longer to sell

The median days on market has moved from 6 days to 9 days over the past year… a 50% increase, even if 9 days still feels quick. That number has been creeping steadily upward for about nine months now. For buyers, that can mean slightly more breathing room than the frenzied pace of recent years. For sellers, it is a reminder that pricing and presentation matter again.

Inventory just did something it had not done all year

For the first time this year, inventory levels in March came in lower than the same month a year ago. That is likely a direct result of all those signed contracts… buyers absorbed a lot of listings last month. Inventory typically builds as we move into spring and summer, but if buyers stay this eager, new listings may not sit around long enough to pile up.

Where rates stand

Mortgage rates remain the steady headwind. Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed averaging 6.30% for the week of April 16, easing slightly from 6.37% the week before. Buyers in our market are clearly active at these levels… the contract numbers make that plain… but affordability still deserves a central place in any buying plan.

How we compare to the national market

Zooming out makes the Valley’s spring look even stronger. Nationally, existing-home sales fell 3.6% month-over-month in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, 1.0% below a year ago, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun summed it up: “March home sales remained sluggish and below last year’s pace. Lower consumer confidence and softer job growth continue to hold back buyers.”

That is not what we are seeing here. Local existing-home sales… the apples-to-apples comparison with NAR’s figure… are up 7% over the past year, and signed contracts just jumped 33% over last March. While the national market cooled in March, the Valley accelerated.

Prices run the other direction. The national median existing-home price reached $408,800 in March, up 1.4% from a year ago and the 33rd consecutive month of year-over-year increases. Locally, the overall median has been essentially flat over the past 12 months, with resale homes up a more modest 3%. Buyers here are getting price stability that most of the country is not.

Inventory completes the contrast. National housing inventory rose to 1.36 million units in March, up 2.3% from a year earlier, for a 4.1-month supply. Local inventory moved the opposite way, coming in below year-ago levels for the first time this year. Supply is loosening nationally while it tightens here… which helps explain why well-priced local homes are still moving in days, not months.

What this means for you

If you are buying, be ready to move quickly. With contracts up 33% over last March, this market is active, and hesitating on the right home can cost you the opportunity. At the same time, homes overall are sitting a few days longer than they were, so you may have slightly more time to think than the headlines suggest. And do not assume flat prices apply to every home… detached and resale homes are both showing modest price increases, so expect real competition for existing homes in the most sought-after locations.

If you are selling, price carefully. The days of pricing high and waiting for a dozen offers are fading… homes are taking slightly longer to sell than a year ago, and in our experience a well-priced home still moves while an overpriced one tends to sit. That said, contract activity just jumped significantly, and buyers are out and motivated right now. If you have been thinking about selling, this spring may be the window you have been waiting for.

For everyone, steady does not mean stalled. Prices are not climbing the way they did from 2019 to 2024, but they are not dropping either. From where we sit, this is a stable market with genuinely strong buyer demand… a healthy place to make an unhurried, well-informed move.

If you are thinking about buying or selling this spring, or you simply want to understand what these trends mean for your specific situation and neighborhood, the Valley Homes Team is here to help you think it through. Reach out anytime… we are always happy to talk it over.

Sources

Local market data: Harrisonburg and Rockingham County MLS residential sales, as compiled and analyzed by Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, in “A Busier Market With Flat Prices and a Slower Pace”, HarrisonburgHousingToday.com, Thursday, April 16, 2026. National market data: National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales report for March 2026, released April 13, 2026. Mortgage rates: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week of April 16, 2026. Local data reflects sales through March 2026. This report is for informational purposes only… individual results vary by home, price range, and location.